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Probabilities in the game of Blackjack

Blackjack probabilities are obvious on some hands

Blackjack probabilities are obvious on some hands

A game of a blackjack is the one that demands good skills, substantial knowledge and constant practice. Contradictory to other card games, Blackjack probabilities can depend much more on a good play, than on simple luck.

It is important to realize the fact that it is impossible to beat the game consistently. Losses are also the part of the Blackjack probabilities. This tip might help players to get more concentrated on the game, constantly improving their skills.

The following numbers in the table below, representing Blackjack Probabilities will help you understand the game and increase your winning chances. The percentages show the chance of beating the dealer by advising best tactics in different gaming situations.

The percentages in the following table show the busting Blackjack Probabilities when Hitting.

It provides a better idea of the odds the player faces when hitting on a high teen (17+).

Busting Blackjack Probabilities table

Hand value % of busting
21 100%
20 92%
19 85%
18 77%
17 69%
16 62%
15 58%
14 56%
13 39%
12 31%
11 or less 0%

The house edge

One may wonder, how can the casino be gaining, when the rules (especially the rule of Stand on 17s, when the dealer's hand according to the Blackjack probabilities has a high chance of busting) are in favour of the players?

The secret of ever-winning casinos lies in the fact that the dealer is the last person to act his hand out (thus the house has an advantage of approximately 8%). All the players that bust, loose their bets at once, and only after the dealer plays his hand out, in case he busts, he pays the rest of the players. No matter how favourable particular blackjack rules might be, this technique always provides a healthy advantage to the casino and influences all the Blackjack probabilities. Although, due to the fact that this edge is much lower than that of other casino games, Blackjack remains to be one of the most popular games played in the casinos.

To increase your winning chances, it is extremely important to investigate the Blackjack Probabilities and the basic Blackjack strategy, because the correct playing strategy may reduce the casino's edge from 8% to 0.5 %.

Correct use of Card-counting techniques may be your winning tactics. However, for these reasons most casinos won't welcome the card-counters once they are exposed.

To increase the edge of the house, some casinos introduce new variations of the rules, some of which may be very harmful for the player and decrease his winning chances to minimum. Let's name some of the possible variations that influence on the Blackjack Probabilities:

  1. Blackjack pays 6 to 5
  2. Dealer hits on soft 17
  3. 8 deck of cards
  4. Doubling down on 10 or 11 only

Remember, these rules were created to lessen the possible Blackjack probabilities of your victory.

Have a look at our Blackjack Strategy page for a useful and easy-to-follow rundown.


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“I like to play blackjack. I'm not addicted to gambling. I'm addicted to sitting in a semi-circle”

Mitch Hedberg